EPL Predictions - Manchester City v Liverpool

Manchester City (1) v Liverpool (10)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Man City at the Etihad (5.30pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is either a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Man City. There is a 15.2pc chance of either outcome. There is an equally likely 27.1pc probability Man City will score either one or two goals. There is a 56.2pc chance Liverpool will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-1 win for Man City. There is a 5.8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is an 18pc chance Man City will score precisely three goals. There is a 32.4pc probability Liverpool will score exactly one goal.