EPL Predictions: Chelsea -v- Liverpool

None of the predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Chelsea losing at Stamford Bridge on Saturday (12.45pm).

The score prediction heuristic suggests a win for Chelsea. Poisson and Rateform both indicate a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.8pc probability Chelsea will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.1pc chance Liverpool will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 victory for Chelsea. There is a 10.8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 30pc chance Liverpool will get no goals.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Chelsea 1, Liverpool 1 (12.9pc); (2) Chelsea 1, Liverpool 0 (10.8pc); (3) Chelsea 0, Liverpool 1 (10.4pc).