League of Ireland Predictions – Bray Wanderers -v- Galway United

Bray Wanderers (8) v Galway United (10)

None of the predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Bray losing at the Carlisle Grounds (5.45pm).

Both Rateform and the score prediction heuristic indicate a win for the Seagulls. Poisson suggests a draw. A draw would effectively clinch Galway’s safety on the basis of a superior goal difference.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 13.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.2pc probability Bray will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.3pc chance Galway will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-0 win for Bray. There is a 6.6pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Bray 1, Galway 1 (13.1pc); (2) Bray 1, Galway 0 (11.2pc); (3) Bray 0, Galway 1 (11.1pc). All three involve Under 2.5 goals.