League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 33

Premier Division

Cork City (2) v Longford Town (8)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Cork at Turner’s Cross (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Cork. There is a 17.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.7pc probability Cork will score exactly two goals. There is a 64.6pc chance Longford will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-1 win for Cork. There is a 3.1pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Cork 2, Longford 0 (17.3pc); (2) Cork 1, Longford 0 (15.4pc); (3) Cork 3, Longford 0 (12.9pc).

Dundalk (1) v Galway United (9)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk at Oriel Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for Dundalk. There is an 11.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 20.1pc probability Dundalk will score exactly three goals. There is a 55.3pc chance Galway will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 10.8pc probability of such an occurrence (see top three Poisson results immediately below).

Top three Poisson results: (1) Dundalk 3, Galway 0 (11.1pc); (2) Dundalk 4, Galway 0 (10.8pc); (3) Dundalk 2, Galway 0 (8.6pc).

St Patrick’s Athletic (4) v Drogheda United (11)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for St Pat’s at Richmond Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 14.6 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.6pc probability St Pat’s will score exactly two goals. There is a 54.7pc chance Drogheda will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-0 win for St Pat’s. There is an 11.1pc probability of such an occurrence (see top three Poisson results immediately below).

Top three Poisson results: (1) St Pat’s 2, Drogheda 0 (14.6pc); (2) St Pat’s 1, Drogheda 0 (12.8pc); (3) St Pat’s 3, Drogheda 0 (11.1pc).

First Division

Cabinteely (8) v Athlone Town (5)

The three predictive methods – Poisson (draw), Rateform (away win) and the score prediction heuristic (home win), which tracks the shorter-term trends – are inconclusive.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at Stradbrook (7.45pm). There is a 12.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.8pc probability Cabinteely will score exactly one goal. There is a 34.9pc chance Athlone will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for Cabinteely. There is a 6.7pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Cabinteely 1, Athlone 1 (12.8pc); (2) Cabinteely 0, Athlone 1 (12.3pc); (3) Cabinteely 1, Athlone 0 (9.5pc).

Finn Harps (2) v Wexford Youths (1)

The three predictive methods – Poisson (draw), Rateform (away win) and the score prediction heuristic (home win), which tracks the shorter-term trends – are inconclusive.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at Finn Park (7.45pm). There is a 13 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36pc probability Finn Harps will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.2pc chance Wexford Youths will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for Finn Harps. There is a 10.9pc probability of such an occurrence (see top three Poisson results immediately below).

Top three Poisson results: (1) Finn Harps 1, Wexford Youths 1 (13pc); (2) Finn Harps 1, Wexford Youths 0 (10.9pc); (3) Finn Harps 0, Wexford Youths 1 (10.6pc).

Shelbourne (4) v Cobh Ramblers (6)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shelbourne at Tolka Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Shelbourne. There is a 13.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 30.6pc probability Shelbourne will score precisely one goal. There is a 44.8pc chance Cobh will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-0 win for Shelbourne. There is an 11.9pc probability of such an occurrence (see top three Poisson results immediately below).

Top three Poisson results: (1) Shelbourne 1, Cobh 0 (13.7pc); (2) Shelbourne 2, Cobh 0 (11.9pc); (3) Shelbourne 1, Cobh 1 (11pc).

Waterford United (7) v UCD (3)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for UCD at the RSC (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for UCD. There is a 12.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 26.8pc probability UCD will score exactly two goals. There is a 45.9pc chance Waterford will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-1 win for UCD. There is a 7pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Waterford 0, UCD 2 (12.3pc); (2) Waterford 0, UCD 1 (11.3pc); (3) Waterford 1, UCD 2 (9.6pc).