League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 30 - Saturday

Limerick FC (12) v Dundalk (1)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk at Markets Field (6.30pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 9.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 21.4pc probability Dundalk will score exactly three goals. There is a 46.2pc chance Limerick will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests Dundalk will score at least three goals.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Limerick 0, Dundalk 3 (9.9pc); (2) Limerick 0, Dundalk 4 (8.8pc); (3) Limerick 0, Dundalk 2 (8.3pc).

Longford Town (8) v St Patrick's Athletic (4)

None of the three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see St Pat’s losing at City Calling Stadium (7.30pm).

Two of them – Poisson and Rateform – suggest a win for Liam Buckley’s side. The score prediction heuristic indicates a high-scoring draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 13.5 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 31.3pc probability St Pat’s will score exactly one goal. There is a 43pc chance Longford will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-3 draw. There is a 0.6pc probability of such an occurrence. In other words, it is extremely unlikely to happen, as you would imagine.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Longford 0, St Pat’s 1 (13.5pc); (2) Longford 0, St Pat’s 2 & Longford 1, St Pat’s 1 (both 11.3pc).

Sligo Rovers (11) v Bray Wanderers (6)

Two of three predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Bray at the Showgrounds (7.45pm).

Poisson indicates a win for Sligo.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Sligo. There is a 16.5 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.2pc probability Sligo will score exactly one goal. There is a 45.6pc chance Bray will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for Bray.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Sligo 1, Bray 0 (16.5pc); (2) Sligo 0, Bray 0 (13.9pc); (3) Sligo 1, Bray 1 (13pc).