League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 30

Cork City (2) v Derry City (8)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Cork at Turner’s Cross (‘live’ RTE 2, 7.25pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Cork. There is a 21 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 30pc probability Cork will score exactly one goal. There is a 70pc chance Derry will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for Cork. There is a 6.7pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 25pc chance Derry will score precisely one goal.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Cork 1, Derry 0 (21pc); (2) Cork 2, Derry 0 (18.7pc); (3) Cork 0, Derry 0 (11.8pc).

Drogheda United (10) v Bohemians (5)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Bohemians at United Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, there is an almost equal likelihood of either a 1-0 win for Bohemians or a 1-1 draw. There is an 11.6 per cent chance of a 1-0 win for the Gypsies. There is an 11.5pc probability the game will end in a 1-1 draw. There is a 31.2pc chance Bohemians will score exactly one goal. There is a 37.1pc probability Drogheda will get no goals. There is a 36.8pc chance Drogheda will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a one-goal win for Bohemians.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Drogheda 0, Bohemians 1 (11.6pc); (2) Drogheda 1, Bohemians 1 (11.5pc); (3) Drogheda 0, Bohemians 2 (9.8pc).

Shamrock Rovers (3) v Galway United (9)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium (8pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Shamrock Rovers. There is a 13.6 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 25.7pc probability the Hoops will score precisely two goals. There is a 53.1pc chance Galway will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a two-goal winning margin for Shamrock Rovers. It indicates a 3-1 win for Pat Fenlon’s side. There is a 7.2pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Shamrock Rovers 2, Galway 0 (13.6pc); (2) Shamrock Rovers 3, Galway 0 (11.4pc); (3) Shamrock Rovers 1, Galway 0 (10.9pc).

First Division

Cabinteely (8) v Cobh Ramblers (5)

None of our predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Cobh losing at Stradbrook (7.45pm).

Two of them – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic – suggest a win for Cobh. Poisson indicates a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 13 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.6pc probability Cabinteely will score exactly one goal. There is a 35.3pc chance Cobh will score precisely one.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Cabinteely 1, Cobh 1 (13pc); (2) Cabinteely 0, Cobh 1 (11.9pc); (3) Cabinteely 1, Cobh 0 (9.9pc).

Finn Harps (2) v UCD (3)

None of our predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Finn Harps losing at Finn Park (8pm).

Two of them – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic – suggest a win for the Donegalmen. Poisson indicates a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 13.5 per cent chance of such an outcome. There is a 36.7pc probability Finn Harps will score exactly one goal. There is also a 36.7pc chance UCD will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for Finn Harps. There is a 12.4pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Finn Harps 1, UCD 1 (13.5pc); (2) Finn Harps 0, UCD 1 (12.7pc); (3) Finn Harps 1, UCD 0 (12.4pc).

Shelbourne (4) v Waterford United (7)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shelbourne at Tolka Park (7.45pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Shelbourne. There is a 13.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 28.5pc probability Shelbourne will score exactly one goal. There is a 48.3pc chance Waterford will get no goals.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Shelbourne 1, Waterford 0 (13.8pc); (2) Shelbourne 2, Waterford 0 (13pc); (3) Shelbourne 1, Waterford 1 (10pc).

Wexford Youths (1) v Athlone Town (6)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Wexford Youths at Ferrycarrig Park (8pm).

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Wexford Youths. There is a 10 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 24.9pc probability Wexford Youths will score exactly two goals. There is a 40.2pc chance Athlone will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-0 win for Wexford Youths. There is an 8.8pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Wexford Youths 2, Athlone 0 (10pc); (2) Wexford Youths 2, Athlone 1 (9.1pc); (3) Wexford Youths 3, Athlone 0 (8.8pc).