League of Ireland Predictions – Gameweek 29

Dundalk (1) v Drogheda United (9)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk at Oriel Park (7.25pm).

The match is live on RTE 2.

According to our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below), there is an equal likelihood of either a 2-0 or 3-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 14.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence in each instance. There is a 22.4pc probability Dundalk will score exactly two goals. There is also a 22.4pc chance Dundalk will score precisely three. There is a 64.3pc probability Drogheda will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 1-0 win for Dundalk, which was the outcome when the sides last met at Oriel Park on Friday 10 April. There is a 9.6pc chance of such an occurrence. A Richie Towell goal two minutes from time separated the Co Louth rivals on that occasion.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Dundalk 2, Drogheda 0 & Dundalk 3, Drogheda 0 (both 14.4pc); (3) Dundalk 4, Drogheda 0 (10.8pc).

Bohemians (5) v Longford Town (7)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Bohemians at Dalymount Park (7.45pm).

According to our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below), the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Bohemians closely followed by a 1-1 draw. There is a 10.6 per cent chance of a 1-0 win for Bohemians. There is a 28pc probability Bohemians will score exactly one goal. There is a 37.8pc chance Longford will get no goals. There is a 10.3pc probability of the game ending in a 1-1 draw. There is a 36.8pc probability Longford will score precisely one goal.

However unlikely, the score prediction heuristic suggests a 4-1 win for Bohemians. There is a 3.1pc chance of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Bohemians 1, Longford 0 (10.6pc); (2) Bohemians 1, Longford 1 (10.3pc); (3) Bohemians 2, Longford 0 (10.2pc).

Derry City (10) v Shamrock Rovers (3)

All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shamrock Rovers at the Brandywell (7.45pm).

According to our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below), the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Shamrock Rovers. There is a 21.3 per cent chance of a 1-0 victory for the Hoops. There is a 34.9pc probability Rovers will score exactly one goal. There is a 61pc chance Derry will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests a 1-0 win for Pat Fenlon’s side.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Derry 0, Shamrock Rovers 1 (21.3pc); (2) Derry 0, Shamrock Rovers 0 (15.6pc); (3) Derry 0, Shamrock Rovers 2 (14.5pc).

First Division

Athlone Town (6) v Shelbourne (4)

Two of the three predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Shelbourne at Lissywoollen (7.45pm).

Poisson favours a draw.

According to our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below), the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is an 13.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.3pc probability Athlone will score exactly one goal. There is a 36pc chance Shelbourne will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-2 win for Shelbourne. There is a 1.9pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Athlone 1, Shelbourne 1 (13.1pc); (2) Athlone 0, Shelbourne 1 (11.1pc); (3) Athlone 1, Shelbourne 0 (10.7pc).

UCD (3) v Wexford Youths (1)

Of the three predictive methods, Poisson favours a draw at The UCD Bowl (7.45pm), the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, indicates a win for the Students, while Rateform suggests a victory for Wexford Youths. So who knows!

According to our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below), the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 10.8 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 30.5pc probability UCD will score exactly one goal. There is also a 35.3pc chance Wexford Youths will score precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-2 win for UCD. There is a 3.6pc probability of such an occurrence.

A win for UCD would make it eight straight league victories on their home patch.

Danny Furlong – third in the Soccer Writers’ Association of Ireland (SWAI) Player-of-the-Month award for August – has netted in eight of 12 road trips this season.

But he was not on the scoresheet when UCD beat Wexford Youths 4-1 at The UCD Bowl on Friday 15 May.

Top three Poisson results: (1) UCD 1, Wexford Youths 1 (10.8pc); (2) UCD 2, Wexford Youths 1 (9.4pc); (3) UCD 1, Wexford Youths 0 (8.2pc).

Waterford United (8) v Cabinteely (7)

Two of the three predictive methods – Poisson and Rateform – favour a draw at the RSC (7.45pm). The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, suggests a win for Cabinteely in the fixture involving the bottom two sides in the First Division.

Waterford have lost their last five outings in the league at the RSC. Their only home win this season was against Cabinteely – a 3-1 victory on Friday 15 May.

According to our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below), the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 12.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 34.7pc probability Waterford will score exactly one goal. There is a 36.6pc chance Cabinteely will score precisely one.

However unlikely, the score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-0 win for Cabinteely. There is a 1.9pc probability of such an occurrence.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Waterford 1, Cabinteely 1 (12.7pc); (2) Waterford 1, Cabinteely 0 (11.4pc); (3) Waterford 0, Cabinteely 1 (9.2pc).