Predictions: Wexford Youths -v- UCD

Wexford Youths (1) v UCD (3)

None of the predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – see Wexford Youths losing to UCD at Ferrycarrig Park in the First Division today (8pm).

Both Rateform and the score prediction heuristic favour a win for Wexford Youths, who beat UCD 1-0 with a goal from Danny Furlong – who else – after just two minutes when the sides last met at Ferrycarrig Park on Friday March 27.

Following that 1-0 loss at Ferrycarrig Park, UCD went on a 17-match unbeaten run in the league (11 wins and six draws) before they lost 2-1 to Shelbourne at Tolka Park on Friday August 28.

Poisson indicates a draw.

As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is an 11.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 33pc probability Wexford Youths will score exactly one goal. There is a 34.2pc chance UCD will get precisely one.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 win for Wexford Youths (the second most likely outcome according to Poisson). There is an 8.7pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 25.4pc chance Wexford Youths will score exactly two goals.

Wexford Youths are looking to make it six straight wins at Ferrycarrig Park. They are also unbeaten in their last five outings in the First Division (four wins and a draw).

UCD are winless in two (a draw and a defeat). They have also won just one of their last seven road trips (3-1 v Cabinteely on Friday July 31).

Furlong has scored in eight of his last nine games in the league. His total of 13 goals in those nine matches includes a brace in each of his last four outings.

Top three Poisson results: (1) Wexford Youths 1, UCD 1 (11.3pc); (2) Wexford Youths 2, UCD 1 (8.7pc); (3) Wexford Youths 1, UCD 2 (8.1pc).

IN SUM: As you can see, the top three Poisson results are inconclusive in determining an outcome. There is a win verdict for Wexford Youths (2-1). There is also a win verdict for UCD (2-1). There is a draw verdict too (1-1), which is the most likely outcome of all the possible occurrences. In the absence of any clarity, this game appears to be one to avoid based if you restrict your analysis to the goal probability distribution data. In the broader context of all three predictive methods, it appears unlikely Wexford Youths will lose.