League of Ireland Predictions – Dundalk -v- Shamrock Rovers
Credit: Extratime Team (ETPhotos)
Dundalk (1) v Shamrock Rovers (3)
All three predictive methods – Poisson, Rateform and the score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends – favour a win for Dundalk against Shamrock Rovers at Oriel Park tonight (‘live’ Setanta Ireland, 8pm).
As our exclusive Poisson matrix (immediately below) shows, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 17.3 per chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.1pc probability Dundalk will score exactly one goal. There is a 48.1pc chance Shamrock Rovers will get no goals.
The score prediction heuristic suggests a 3-1 win for Dundalk. There is a 3.1pc probability of such an occurrence. There is an 8.8pc chance Dundalk will score precisely three goals. There is a 35.2pc probability Shamrock Rovers will score exactly one.
Top three Poisson results: (1) Dundalk 1, Shamrock Rovers 0 (17.3pc); (2) Dundalk 0, Shamrock Rovers 0 (14.3pc); (3) Dundalk 1, Shamrock Rovers 1 (12.7pc).
VERDICT: Unanimous, a Dundalk win.
About Robert Reid
Robert Reid is a sports sub-editor at The Irish Sun. Robert trades the football markets, both here and in the UK. He has the prestigious MSTA designation from the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) in … View Full Profile