Sligo Rovers have scored at least two goals in 11 of their 20 fixtures, slightly more than half, in the Airtricity League Premier Division this season.
UCD, Sligo’s opponents on Monday, are one of the sides Ian Baraclough’s men managed to score a brace against in a 2-1 win on the Students last visit to The Showgrounds on Saturday, 10 March.
So, can Sligo score twice more against a side boosted by back-to-back wins in the league for the first time in 2012 when the teams renew acquaintances on Monday?
According to our analysis, there is a 75 per cent chance Sligo will score at least two goals. That suggests they will. It does not guarantee it, of course, but the odds of it occurring appear favourable.
Of course, UCD are the only side to have beaten Sligo this season. They were 1-0 winners over the Bit O’Red at UCD Bowl on Monday, 21 May.
Sligo responded to that surprise reverse by embarking on their current eight-game unbeaten run (four wins and four draws).
Monday marks the 135th day that they have been top of the Airtricity table. It also marks the 80th day since their last defeat.
They look destined for their first title for 35 years and, all things being equal, UCD are not likely to stand in their way.
According to our calculations, the ‘true’ odds of a Sligo win are 1.54, or a 65 per cent chance. Even the best-priced 1.22 (2/9) (implied probability 82 per cent) Bet Victor go about a Sligo win clearly overestimates the likelihood of a home victory over UCD.
In instances where the betting odds overstate the ‘true’ odds, we will always advise you give it a miss. According to our calculations, there is a 24.2pc chance Sligo will score precisely two goals and a 53.2pc probability UCD will fail to hit the target.
You could also consider Sligo with a -2 handicap.
However, while four of those 11 games in which Sligo have scored at least a brace have produced three-goal winning margins, UCD have yet to lose a league game by three clear goals.
So even awarding UCD a notional two-goal head start in the search of some 'value' offers no guarantees.
In all likelihood, you could be relying on Sligo to score all three goals.
But scoring goals has not been a problem for the Bit O’Red. Danny North has not been missed – Mark Quigley, with six goals in five consecutive league games, has largely seen to that.
But no side in the Airtricity League is deserving of such short-priced favouritism.
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Robert Reid is a sports sub-editor at The Irish Sun, where he writes a weekly betting column on the Airtricity League Premier Division, ‘Reid it and Reap’, every Friday. Robert trades the football markets, both here and in the UK. He has the prestigious MSTA designation from the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) in the UK and also trades the financial markets, both FX and equities. A member of the Irish Soccer Writers’ Association (SWAI) and former secretary of the SWAI, Robert also founded and manages the Irish chapter of the STA. He has a blog http://irishfootieindex.wordpress.com/ which focuses on highlighting low/risk, high-probability trades in the Airtricity League. He is also on Twitter, @robertreid64, and Facebook.